Murphy's Market Minute | March 13, 2026

The week’s key focus was inflation. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, with Core CPI up 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released today, increased 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, while Core PCE rose to 3.1% YoY. These readings were broadly in line with expectations and suggest inflation continues moderating toward levels consistent with the Fed’s patient approach to interest rates.

Economic growth showed some softness, with fourth-quarter GDP revised lower to +0.7% annualized. That said, consumer spending and personal income both increased 0.4%, highlighting resilient household demand. The labor market also remains stable, with initial jobless claims at 213,000 and job openings holding elevated at 6.9 million.

Despite encouraging inflation data, equity markets experienced volatility during the week driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Markets attempted a rebound following the PCE release but ultimately finished the session lower, leaving the major indices modestly down week-over-week compared to last Friday’s close (March 6) after earlier declines tied to energy costs and global tensions.