The Elliot Omanson Show

Murphy's Market Minute | April 10, 2026

Markets rebounded this week following a sharp drop in oil prices tied to a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. While the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all pushed higher, the move was largely driven by relief that a worst-case geopolitical scenario may be avoided—at least for now.On the economic side, inflation data came in hotter than expected, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year. However, this increase was driven almost entirely by a spike in energy prices, particularly gasoline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained relatively stable, reinforcing the idea that broader inflation pressures are still under control.Oil remains the key variable. After briefly spiking above $110 earlier in the week amid escalating tensions, prices pulled back sharply following the ceasefire announcement but remain elevated and volatile. With the Strait of Hormuz still a point of concern for global supply, energy markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines.Overall, the market is currently operating under the assumption that inflation will ease if oil stabilizes and that economic fundamentals remain intact. However, this environment remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments, and any renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains.

How Much Do You REALLY Need to Retire? (Why Most People Get It Wrong)

How much money do you actually need to retire? The truth is, there is no “magic number” — and most people get this wrong. In this episode, we break down why traditional retirement advice often fails and what actually determines how much you need.We cover the biggest factors that impact your retirement plan, including spending habits, lifestyle expectations, taxes, healthcare costs, and inflation. You’ll also learn why relying on rules like the 4% rule can be dangerous, how retirement has shifted from pensions to self-funded income, and why taxes are often the biggest expense people overlook.This episode also dives into how Social Security fits into your plan, why expenses don’t disappear in retirement, and how strategies like Roth accounts can significantly increase your after-tax income. If you want a clearer, more realistic framework for retirement — this is it.If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Get a personalized retirement analysis: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

How High Earners Pay Less in Taxes Using Oil & Gas

Most high earners overpay taxes. Here’s how they fix it.High-income earners are often told there’s nothing they can do to meaningfully reduce their tax bill. That’s not entirely true.In this episode, Elliot sits down with Steve Blackwell, CEO of Invito Energy Partners, to break down how oil & gas investments are used as a tax strategy to offset ordinary income. They explain how intangible drilling costs (IDC) and bonus depreciation work, why these deductions have existed in the tax code for over 100 years, and how they can be used alongside strategies like Roth conversions.They also explain why many investors lose money in oil & gas — and how to avoid those mistakes.If you’re a high earner looking for ways to reduce taxes or better understand advanced tax strategies, this is a complete breakdown. If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Widow’s Penalty Explained: Why You Pay MORE Taxes After Losing a Spouse

What really happens financially after losing a spouse? The “widow’s penalty” is one of the most overlooked risks in retirement—and it can result in higher taxes, lower income, and less flexibility, all at the worst possible time.In this episode, we break down why a surviving spouse can end up paying more in taxes despite earning less income. From losing a Social Security benefit to being pushed into higher single tax brackets, the financial impact stacks quickly. We also cover how required minimum distributions (RMDs) and Social Security taxation can compound the problem, along with key estate planning mistakes that can make things even worse.This isn’t just about taxes—it’s about being prepared. Proper planning, correct beneficiary designations, and having a clear financial structure in place can dramatically reduce the impact of this “widow’s shock.”If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Why Retirement Plans Fail: The Biggest Mistakes to Avoid

Why do retirement plans fail, even for people who saved diligently for years? In this episode, Elliot Omanson and Nathaniel Vossman break down the biggest reasons retirement plans fall apart, including overspending, poor tax planning, panic selling, bad withdrawal timing, inflation, healthcare costs, and being too conservative with investments.They also explain how emotions can wreck a financial plan, why taxes can become one of the biggest expenses in retirement, how RMDs and Social Security taxation create hidden problems, and what people should focus on to improve their odds of long-term success. If you want a smarter retirement strategy and want to avoid the most common mistakes, this episode is for you.If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Murphy's Market Minute | March 13, 2026

The week’s key focus was inflation. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, with Core CPI up 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released today, increased 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, while Core PCE rose to 3.1% YoY. These readings were broadly in line with expectations and suggest inflation continues moderating toward levels consistent with the Fed’s patient approach to interest rates.Economic growth showed some softness, with fourth-quarter GDP revised lower to +0.7% annualized. That said, consumer spending and personal income both increased 0.4%, highlighting resilient household demand. The labor market also remains stable, with initial jobless claims at 213,000 and job openings holding elevated at 6.9 million.Despite encouraging inflation data, equity markets experienced volatility during the week driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Markets attempted a rebound following the PCE release but ultimately finished the session lower, leaving the major indices modestly down week-over-week compared to last Friday’s close (March 6) after earlier declines tied to energy costs and global tensions.

CNN’s Jake Tapper HUMILIATED by Iranian Activist on Trump & Iran

CNN’s Jake Tapper brought on an Iranian activist expecting criticism of Trump’s actions toward Iran — but the interview completely backfired. Instead of attacking Trump or the U.S., the activist explained why many Iranians actually hope the regime is finally removed.In this Elliot Omanson Show short, Elliot reacts to the moment the narrative collapsed on live television. When Tapper tried to frame U.S. and Israeli actions as turning the Iranian people against America, the activist delivered a powerful response about what life under the Ayatollah’s regime has really been like — and why many Iranians see the current moment very differently than Western media portrays.The exchange exposes a bigger issue with mainstream media coverage: the gap between the story being pushed on television and what people inside these regimes actually experience.

The 60/40 Portfolio & 4% Rule: Why They May No Longer Work

The 60/40 portfolio and the 4% rule have long been considered the standard formula for retirement planning. But do these strategies still work in today’s market environment?In this educational video, Elliot and Nathaniel explain how the traditional 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio structure became the industry standard and why the famous 4% withdrawal rule gained popularity after the Trinity Study and the research of William Bengen in the 1990s.We also break down the major risks retirees face today, including sequence of returns, bond yields, inflation, and longevity. Finally, Elliot introduces an alternative framework that organizes retirement investments based on time horizons instead of relying solely on a fixed 60/40 allocation.If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions & The Israel Debate — My Take

Iran’s leaders have repeatedly called for Israel to be “wiped off the map.” Is it political rhetoric — or a real threat? As Iran advances its nuclear capabilities, the stakes are rising fast.In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot shares his perspective on Israel’s military strategy, the history of modern warfare, failed nuclear negotiations, and the difference between bureaucratic diplomacy and real-world dealmaking. Drawing from his experience serving overseas in the U.S. military, he explains why he believes the stakes are higher than most commentators admit.This episode was filmed prior to the recent U.S. strike against Iranian leadership, but the strategic questions discussed remain highly relevant.

Murphy's Market Minute | February 27, 2026

The main data release this week was Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.5% versus expectations of 0.3%. Year-over-year PPI is now 2.9%, continuing its broader cooling trend despite the monthly bump.Mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time in over three years, with the 30-year fixed rate hovering around 6%. Some qualified borrowers are seeing mid-5% rates, though typically with points. Overall, rates are stabilizing.Jobless claims remained in line with expectations and had minimal market impact. Markets are largely flat year-to-date. The S&P 500 and Dow are modestly positive, small caps are outperforming, and large-cap tech is slightly negative — signaling rotation rather than broad weakness. Historically, similar early-year setups have often led to positive full-year outcomes, though we continue monitoring closely.Tariff adjustments and geopolitical headlines (including Iran developments) have not meaningfully moved markets so far.We are preparing to launch our upgraded client portal, designed to centralize your financial accounts, planning tools, estate platform, and communication hub in one streamlined dashboard. More details coming soon.