The Elliot Omanson Show

Murphy's Market Minute | December 19, 2025

This week delivered a heavy slate of economic data, highlighted by key employment and inflation reports.The November employment report came in above expectations, with the U.S. economy adding 64,000 jobs. While this was a positive surprise, it continues to reflect a broader slowdown in hiring. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021, while wage growth softened, with average hourly earnings increasing just 0.1%, below expectations.Additional labor data released Thursday showed initial jobless claims of 224,000, in line with forecasts, reinforcing the view of a cooling—but still stable—labor market.Inflation data was the main market driver this week. Headline CPI fell to 2.7% and core CPI declined to 2.6%, its lowest level since early 2021. Part of this drop reflects a temporary data issue caused by the government shutdown, which delayed the collection of some housing prices and made inflation appear cooler than it truly is. Even so, the overall trend remains favorable, supporting stocks and giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility later this year if inflation continues to ease.Despite easing inflation and a modest rise in unemployment, markets are not expecting a near-term rate cut. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s January meeting currently stands at 19.9%.Markets are extending Thursday’s rally into Friday, though stocks remain roughly flat on the week, as early-week weakness offset recent gains.

I Went From Mar-a-Lago to a NYC Left-Wing Conference… The Truth About BOTH Sides of America

This week, Elliot shares one of the most surreal experiences of his life: starting the week inside Mar-a-Lago as a guest of Glenn Beck, and ending it in New York City surrounded by left-wing influencers, LGBTQ leaders, intelligence officials, and cultural activists. Two worlds that never mix — and Elliot walked straight through both.At Mar-a-Lago, Elliot attended the American Journey Experience fundraiser and was invited into Glenn Beck’s private collection, which includes the original rough draft of the U.S. Constitution, FDR’s wheelchair, the flag flown over Normandy, and countless artifacts that most museums don’t even have access to. It’s one of the largest private American history collections in existence, and seeing it up close offers a perspective few people ever get.Less than a day later, Elliot was on the opposite end of the political spectrum at a major influencer conference in Manhattan. The room was filled with LGBTQ organizers, former intelligence officers, human-rights leaders, content creators, and activists who see the world through a completely different lens. What was surprising isn’t how different the groups were — but how similar their fears, assumptions, and motivations turned out to be.Elliot breaks down why both sides believe the other is an existential threat, how political rhetoric convinces people that disagreement equals death, and why this mindset is tearing the country apart. He also shares moments of genuine connection, humor, and unexpected conversations that show how much common ground actually exists when people stop arguing and start listening.This is an honest, unfiltered look at America’s cultural divide from someone who stepped directly into both realities in the same week. If you want political commentary grounded in real experiences — not headlines — this episode delivers.

Murphy's Market Minute | November 26, 2025

We’re proud to feature Rocky Malloy on this week’s Murphy’s Market Minute. Rocky is a former U.S. Merchant Marine Commander whose life was transformed after a series of extraordinary, near-death experiences led him to faith. Today, he leads the National School Chaplain Association, bringing chaplaincy, hope, and spiritual support to students across the U.S. and around the world. Rocky is joining us in Kansas City this week—and he’ll also be starring in our newest episode of Backseat Ballers.Markets are heading into the holiday on a strong note, with all three major indices firmly in the green today. It’s been an impressive stretch overall, capped by a standout performance from the Nasdaq, which is up nearly 4.5% for the week.The rally is fueled by rising optimism around a December rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now assign an 82.9% probability to a 25 bps cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting—up sharply from just 30.1% last week.On the economic front, inflation continues to cool. PPI rose 0.3% MoM in line with expectations, while Core PPI came in at a softer 0.1% versus the 0.3% forecast—further evidence of disinflation taking hold.Consumer sentiment, however, weakened sharply. Consumer confidence fell to 88.7, well below expectations and the lowest reading since April. At the same time, initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April and below the 225,000 estimate—signaling continued strength in the labor market.After a strong Q3 earnings season and rising expectations for rate cuts, we remain constructive on equities heading into year-end and into 2026. Short-term volatility is always possible, but the broader outlook continues to lean positive.

They Backed the Iraq War… Now Warn Troops About ‘Illegal Orders’ That Don’t Exist?

Six Democratic veterans released a video urging troops to “refuse illegal orders” — despite the fact that no such orders are being issued. At the same time, each of them obeyed every order during the Iraq War, a conflict they now describe as unjust, mistaken, or “built on lies.” This breakdown examines that contradiction and why the message doesn’t line up with their own record in uniform.

Murphy's Market Minute | November 21, 2025

Markets tumbled this week, with all three major indices sliding sharply. The last—and largest—of the Magnificent 7, Nvidia, reported very strong earnings Wednesday after the bell, beating both revenue and profit expectations. Stocks initially opened higher on the news, but sentiment reversed quickly after the September employment report.The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs, more than double the forecast of 50,000, and initial jobless claims came in at 220,000, below expectations of 227,000. Together, these signals pointed to a firmer labor market, which in turn reduced expectations of a December rate cut.However, the report wasn’t entirely strong: the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The mixed signals—strong hiring but rising unemployment—added to market volatility, as investors debated whether the Fed would feel comfortable easing policy next month. Concerns about stretched AI valuations further weighed on sentiment. Both the Dow and Nasdaq swung more than 1,000 points from their intraday highs to lows.This morning, the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 51—the lowest reading since June 2022. Wage growth also cooled, with average hourly earnings rising 3.8% year over year, slightly above expectations of 3.7%.Adding to the uncertainty, New York Fed President John Williams said he believes the Fed can begin to lower interest rates “in the near term” given signs of labor-market weakness. His comments helped push December rate-cut odds back up to 75.3%, a sharp increase of roughly 30 percentage points from last Friday.

John Fetterman & Bill Maher Just Exposed the Far-Left — No One Is Supposed to Say This

Senator John Fetterman and Bill Maher just said what most politicians won’t: the far-left’s politics of division are creating resentment, hostility, and tribalism. In this quick breakdown, Elliot Omanson explains why group-based politics inevitably backfires — and why Fetterman’s comments are less “courage” and more basic human psychology.Fetterman described the far-left as “the most poisonous,” while Maher echoed similar frustrations. Elliot dives into why policies built on forced redistribution and identity-based conflict make unity impossible — and why reducing political coercion leads to less resentment, not more.

Zohran Mamdani Elected Mayor — The END of New York City?

Zohran Mamdani was just elected mayor of New York City — and we think it marks the culmination of everything wrong with the Democrat Party. In this week’s episode, we break down what Mamdani’s win really means for NYC: rent freezes, “free housing,” government-run grocery stores, higher taxes, and a complete misunderstanding of what freedom actually is.We get into FDR’s forgotten “Second Bill of Rights,” how the left twists the idea of rights into government handouts, and why every time they try this, it ends the same way — failure. We even look at Kansas City’s publicly run grocery store (spoiler: it’s a disaster) and how decades of rent stabilization have distorted NYC’s housing market and pushed prices higher for everyone else.Later, we dig into New York’s abortion statistics, population trends, and why policies that claim to help certain groups end up hurting them most. From Giuliani’s New York to Mamdani’s, this episode shows how cities keep repeating the same mistakes — and what it says about where America’s headed.

Murphy's Market Minute | November 7, 2025

November is off to a sluggish start for stocks, with all three major indices finishing the first week of the month in the red. If October was the party, then November has been the hangover.Market sentiment has been weighed down by several factors: ongoing concerns about a potential government shutdown, limited fresh economic data, and renewed uncertainty about whether the Fed will deliver another rate cut in December.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting — still more likely than not, but a noticeable drop from confidence levels leading into October’s cut.Adding to the cautious tone, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3%, down 6.2% from last month and marking its lowest reading since June 2022. Consumers are increasingly worried about inflation and the overall direction of the economy.Tech stocks, which fueled much of this year’s rally, have been hit hardest amid valuation concerns. All eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings report on November 19th, which could set the tone for the broader market into year-end.Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, a case that could have major implications for trade policy and global markets.With so many moving parts — from the Fed’s next move to consumer confidence and international trade — market volatility may persist as we close out 2025.

Murphy's Market Minute | October 24, 2025

It’s been a strong week for markets, with all three major U.S. indexes on pace to finish up more than 1%. The rally has been fueled by a solid start to Q3 earnings season, where roughly 84% of companies have beaten Wall Street expectations so far — a sign of continued corporate resilience despite macro uncertainty.Tesla (TSLA) was the first of the “Magnificent 7” to report, missing earnings by nearly 10% but posting record revenue of $28.1 billion. The rest of the group will report next week, with Nvidia closing out the mega cap lineup in November.On the macro front, September CPI data was released Friday despite the ongoing government shutdown — required by law for Social Security COLA adjustments. Both headline and core inflation came in cooler than expected at 3.0%, below the 3.1% consensus. This reading reinforced expectations of further Fed rate cuts, with futures markets now pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bp cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.Also worth watching: President Trump and Chinese President Xi are confirmed to meet next Thursday at the APEC Summit. The meeting comes amid renewed trade tensions — China recently expanded restrictions on rare earth exports, and the U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs in response. Any sign of progress toward de-escalation could provide another tailwind for equities into month-end.

No Kings Protest MELTDOWN: AI Clips, Ballroom Outrage & Double Standards

This week’s episode breaks down one of the most ridiculous outrage cycles yet — the “No Kings” protests and the media’s obsession with Trump’s White House ballroom.We look at how the outrage machine keeps spinning: AI-generated clips, performative protests, and constant double standards that define today’s politics. Elliot even shares his new op-ed, “The Hypocrisy Presidency: When Outrage Only Runs One Way,” calling out how both sides bend the rules when it benefits them.From the “Chicken Little” mindset to fake moral crusades, we cut through the noise, show what’s really driving the outrage, and talk about why America’s biggest addiction might just be hypocrisy itself.